FOR OPENERS, WHAT’S A TRIPLE WITCHING HOUR? IN the financial community, the triple witching hour is the last stock market trading session on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Three types of securities expire then, and huge trading volumes, often accompanied by wild price swings, are generated. So, this is the culmination of known trends and progressions.

In comparison, a “perfect storm” is the confluence of somewhat random, and otherwise unconnected, negative events. In the supply chain universe, we experience both types of combinations.

What’s worse than the triple version of either is a quadruple variant. What’s worse than that is a quintuple—and so on.

TODAY’S LOOMING EVENTS AND DEVELOPMENTS

So, whether the next wave to wash over the rocky shores of supply chain management is more a witching hour or a storm, imperfect or not, we need to be alert and aware to possibilities and probabilities. Something is coming; there is always a dark cloud on the horizon, no matter how sunny the day. What follows is a look at some of the looming challenges:

; Dim weight parcel pricing: Let’s begin with the highly visible, and somewhat controversial, implementation of dimensional weight pricing for parcel shipments. In the short haul, pun intended, costs for parcel shippers of any consequential volume will go through the roof. Ultimately, thoughtful and proactive companies will mitigate the cost consequences by more intelligent packaging and carrier/mode decisions.

But reaching that equilibrium will take time, and everyone will experience some level of chaos in the interim. Shortsighted shippers may never get it quite right, and we could see shakeouts in the marketplace, with re-allocation of volumes and market repositioning, not to mention business failures, as outcomes.

; Energy and fuel: We may be getting lulled into a false sense of confidence, with drastically lower fuel prices at the pump. We are generating all kinds of energy internally, and Saudi Arabia

BY ART VAN BODEGRAVEN AND KENNETH B. ACKERMAN basictraining

What’s worse than a triple
witching hour?

has just announced a substantive reduction in per-barrel pricing for crude oil. Sleep with one eye open, friends. There is no reason to think that fuel prices will stay low forever.

Global demand—and diversion of domestic production into Europe as a counterweight to the disproportionate power of Russia in supplying the Continent with gas and oil—will ultimately act to drive our prices higher. And the current boon of less pressure on transport costs could disappear overnight.

; Labor and talent capacity: You can’t pick up any journal, magazine, whatever, without getting the shakes over either the probability or immediate actuality of talent shortages throughout the supply chain. We see, btw, parallel shortfalls throughout manufacturing, one of the supply chain’s major components.

We need, now, and simply don’t have, skilled tradespeople. We are looking, not only at the bottom of the barrel, but under the barrel as well, for analysts, engineers, planners, supervisors and managers, IT professionals, network designers, strategists, and on and on. There are just not nearly enough to go around. Whatever talent surpluses there may be are likely not qualified, or contemporary, or multiskilled, or enterprise-aware enough to fill gaps of any significance.

We don’t have enough truck drivers, particularly for long distance over-the-road transport, and the gap is growing daily. We don’t have enough pick/pack distribution center operatives, certainly to support future needs, and in specific areas of the country, enough to fill