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Aircargo sector could see rise in volume in 2020,
but freight revenue continues to drop
The battered aircargo sector could see a modest improvement in volume in 2020, following months of dismal
performance caused by international trade wars, softening global trade, and a worldwide slowdown in economic
growth, the industry group International Air Transport
Association (IATA) said.
In its most recent monthly report, Geneva,
Switzerland-based IATA found that global
airfreight volumes had tumbled in October,
the 12th consecutive month of year-on-year
declines. Overall, cargo traffic turned negative last year for the first time since 2012, registering a 3.3% annual decline in demand, its steepest drop
since 2009 during the global financial crisis, the group said.
Looking ahead, cargo traffic is expected to rebound mod-
erately, with 2.0% growth in 2020, although its predicted
total freight volume of 62. 4 million tons would still be
below the 2018 total of 63. 3 million tons. Likewise, cargo
revenues will slip for a third year in 2020, with revenues
expected to total $101.2 billion, down 1.1% from 2019,
However, the picture gets brighter when airlines factor
in revenues from the passenger side, which are expected
to offset slumping freight revenues. All together, the global
airline industry will produce a net profit of $29.3 billion
in 2020—an improvement over a net profit
of $25.9 billion expected in 2019 (revised
downward from a $28 billion forecast in
June)—making 2020 its 11th consecutive
year in the black, IATA said.
“Slowing economic growth, trade wars,
geopolitical tensions, social unrest, and continuing uncertainty over Brexit all came together to create a
tougher-than-anticipated business environment for airlines
[in 2019],” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general
and CEO, said in a release. “Yet the industry managed to
achieve a decade in the black, as restructuring and cost-cut-ting continued to pay dividends. It appears that 2019 will be
the bottom of the current economic cycle, and the forecast
for 2020 is somewhat brighter.” n
