Business Corner
STRATEGIES & ANALYSIS
BY PHIL PHILLIPS, PHD
CONTRIBUTING EDITOR
PHILLIPS@CHEMARKCONSULTING.NET
The automaker reshuffle
The global auto market is in a state of flux and everybody knows it. Knowing the market is in a space it has not experienced for more than 70 years and knowing
exactly what to do about it is news worthy.
We also know that as vehicles are produced,
so are coatings, adhesives, sealants and all the
other chemicals the vehicle producer depends
on. Therefore, accurate forecasting of vehicle
production is key to understanding what will
occur with these critical chemicals.
Globally, Chemark estimates industrial pro-
duction to follow this regional growth pattern
in 2010:
growth or they will decline. Annual percentage
change of vehicle production is as follows:
The paint
and coatings
industry is
adapting to
shifting tides
in the global
auto industry.
North America: 2.8%
EU: 2.2%
UK: 1.8%
Ireland: 3.8%
Germany: 1.6%
France: 2.0%
Italy: 1.5%
Spain: 2.0%
Emerging Europe: 5.3%
China
India
Indonesia
Australia
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
South Africa
France
Canada
Argentina
US
Spain
Netherlands
UK
Italy
Germany
Japan
Turkey
Mexico
Russia
2009 2010
+ 8 + 9
+ 6 + 6
+ 4 + 4
+1 +2
-1 + 4
-1 + 4
-1 + 4
-2 +2
-2 +1
-2 +2
-2 +2
- 3 +2
- 4 -1
- 4 +1
- 4 +1
- 5 0
- 5 0
- 5 +2
- 6 + 4
- 7 + 3
- 8 +2
Per capita wealth trends are important elemental predictors of potential vehicle purchases.
We see for the average global individual wealth
will increase more than 75% by the year 2030.
The current key industrialized nations—the U.S.
and EU—will remain rich, sustaining strong
vehicle demand and during the same time
frame, China will reach wealth levels similar to
today’s Czech Republic while India will reach
levels of today’s Russia or Turkey. Obviously,
growing economies and increasing wealth will
require increased numbers of vehicles.
The annual change by country of vehicle pro-
duction from 2009 to 2010 shows Asia Pacific
and Oceana regions growing strongest with
Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey and
Mexico also showing positive growth rates
between three and four percent year-over-year.
The remaining countries will have sluggish, no
Where will the innovation breakthroughs
driving market share achievement in this mar-
ket take place? Through 2014, Chemark sees
the greatest surge of sustained innovation and,
therefore, the most likely region to prosper in
the race for global share in Asia, EU and NA at
a rate of 5.2, 3. 6 and -2.7% respectively. This
development backdrop will manifest itself in
share-of-market (SOM) in six years with Asia
controlling 53%; EU 36%: and NA 8%.
