DC Velocity - December 2011

thoughtleaders
BY MARK B. SOLOMON, SENIOR EDITOR

In for the long haul

INTERVIEW WITH JOHN G. LARKIN

During his 34 years in the field, all-star transportation analyst
John G. Larkin has witnessed a lot of change. And the most
profound shift of all, he says, has nothing to do with trucking.

JOHN G. LARKIN HASN’T WORKED IN THE TRANSPORTATION field since the dawn of creation. It just sometimes feels that way.

Larkin began his transportation career in 1977 as a research assistant at the Center for Transportation at the University of Texas at Austin. After obtaining his bachelor’s and master’s degrees in civil engineering from the universities of Vermont and UT-Austin, respectively, as well as an M.B.A. from Harvard University, Larkin spent three years at CSX Transportation in various planning and economic analysis capacities. In 1987, he embarked on what would become a near 25-year career as one of the industry’s most renowned securities analysts, rising to become managing director and head of the transportation practice at Baltimore-based Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.

Larkin, who has forgotten more about transportation than most know, spoke to DC VELOCITY Senior Editor Mark B. Solomon about what came before, what is happening today, and what the present portends for the future.

QWhat are your data points telling you about the direction of shipping volumes and the health of the overall economy over the next six to 12 months? AWe have much better real-time data on freight volumes than ever before. But the most useful information is of the anecdotal variety from privately held companies. They have no ax to grind with public shareholders and almost always shoot straight. Through their feedback, we have detected a disconnect: Freight volumes, at least relative to downsized capacity levels, are looking rather good at the moment. The sky is not falling.