Coatings World - September 2008

Business Corner

STRATEGIES & ANALYSIS

Can you imagine four years ago in 2004 the president of a $300 million dollar global coatings or adhesives business saying to his reports that he wants a “best, most likely and worst-case” set of

scenarios with the sets of inputs detailed in the chart on the previous page.

You would have laughed at least to yourself when you considered either end of this possibility spectrum. Certainly,

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you would have thought, this line up of extreme events has no chance of happening in our lifetime. These worst case elements could not possibly “line-up” in today’s economy or even, you couldn’t imagine an economy in which this situation would exist. Could you?

Of course, with the significant exceptions of a terrorist attack (again) on the U.S.; major wars in the middle east; or even a direct attack on a major democracy, as we now know only too well, the worst case scenario did happen.

Today, as a global player, you must take into consideration all conceivable possibilities and, as we now have experienced, even some inconceivable ones as well. If this broadened scenario capability requires expansion in people and analytical tools and the additional use of outside organizations to assure all possibilities are covered, as a global participant in a global economy, it must be done.

Bridging up to this comprehensive, broadened analytical approach will not only require resources you may not possess currently, but it will require time to plan. Time to establish the tactical details of the plan would include, but not limited to:

• Programs’ objective deliverables;

• Selection of personnel and analytical software;

• A comprehensive understanding of the required data inputs;

• Sourcing for those data; and

• Determining the tempo required in gathering the data;

Once the first analysis is complete, the follow-on analysis will require much less effort, but constant massaging to keep current and viable. Chemark recommends a quarterly frequency to be used to assure your business is as current as is possible.