Searching for signs of optimism
ACCORDING TO ECONOMISTS, “THE GREAT RECESSION”—
the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the
1930s—officially ended 30 months ago. The private, non-profit
National Bureau of Economic Research, for instance, tells us the
recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.
Yet it’s hard to find anyone who feels things have gotten materially better since then. A November 2011 poll conducted by the
Marist Institute for Public Opinion, a research center based at
Marist College in Poughkeepsie, N. Y., showed that not only do 73
percent of Americans think we’re still in a recession, but more
than half ( 53 percent) believe the worst is yet to come for the U.S.
economy.
It’s not hard to understand why. A lagging
housing and construction market, nearly a
decade of wage stagnation, and the fear of inflation (especially relative to necessities like food,
gasoline, and home heating fuel) have conspired
to create a widespread sense of economic
malaise.
That’s not to say there aren’t signs of improvement out there. Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) from July through September
2011 hit 2 percent. Not great, but a clear
improvement over the second quarter’s 1. 3 percent. And just last month, the nation’s unemployment rate finally dropped below 9 percent
for the first time since March 2009.
There are even indications that the public’s mood is beginning
to brighten. Take the Marist surveys, for example. Although the
institute’s November poll found that 53 percent of the respondents
believed the U.S. economy had yet to hit bottom, that was down
significantly from the 68 percent who were of the same mind in
August. Still not great, but it suggests at least a guarded sense of
optimism.
Those findings align nicely with the results of our own 2012
Outlook survey, which asked DC VELOCITY’S readers what they
foresaw for the U.S. economy in the months ahead. As Editor at
Large James Cooke notes in his survey report on page 53, more
logistics professionals are optimistic than are pessimistic about the
U.S. economy’s prospects over the next 12 months. Admittedly, the
percentages are close: 39 percent of respondents said they believed
economic conditions would improve, while 34 percent described
themselves as pessimistic about the future. About 27 percent said
they were unsure what 2012 would hold.
