bigpicture
Peter Bradley
Editorial Director
peter@dcvelocity.com
Karen Bachrach
Executive Editor
karen@dcvelocity.com
Toby Gooley
Managing Editor
tgooley@dcvelocity.com
David Maloney
Senior Editor, Special Projects & eContent
dmaloney@dcvelocity.com
Mark Solomon
Senior Editor
mark@dcvelocity.com
Susan Lacefield
Associate Managing Editor
slacefield@dcvelocity.com
James Cooke
Editor at Large
jcooke@dcvelocity.com
Steve Geary
Editor at Large
sgeary@dcvelocity.com
George Weimer
Editor at Large
gweimer@dcvelocity.com
Erica E. Mac Donald
Assistant Editor
Sean Maloney
Assistant Editor
Keisha Capitola
Director of Creative Services
keisha@dcvelocity.com
Jeff Thacker
Director of eMedia
jeff@dcvelocity.com
Rhonda McGee
Director of Research
rmcgee@dcvelocity.com
Columnists:
Clifford F. Lynch
Don Jacobson
Shelly Safian
Kenneth B. Ackerman
Art Van Bodegraven
Barry Brandman
Needed: a good map
Gary Master
Publisher
gmaster@dcvelocity.com
Mitch Mac Donald
Group Editorial Director
mitch@dcvelocity.com
Jim Indelicato
Group Publisher
jindelicato@dcvelocity.com
EDITORIAL OFFICE
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FOR MUCH OF THE PAST TWO YEARS, BUSINESSES AROUND THE
world have focused predominantly on getting through a profound economic crisis. Thinking about what the economy might look like five years
out may have seemed a luxury.
It is not. As Mitch Mac Donald, group editorial director here at DC
VELOCITY, is fond of reminding the staff, you have to keep your eye on the
road ahead, not on the hood ornament.
A group of consultants from McKinsey & Co. made much the same
point in an article that appeared last June in the company’s online business
journal, McKinsey Quarterly. In that article, U.S.-based consultants Peter
“Systematically spotting and acting on emerging ones
helps companies to capture market opportunities, test
risks, and spur innovation.”
The consultants warned that it’s no longer enough
for executives to simply monitor developments in their
own markets. “Managers must also gain an under-
standing of deep external forces and the narrower
trends they can unleash,” they contended. “In our
experience, if senior executives wait for the full impact
of global forces to manifest themselves at an industry
and company level, they will have waited too long.”
In the same article, the consultants offered their take
on the major forces—or “crucibles,” as they call
them—that will shape the world economy in the years ahead. They should
sound familiar. First is “the great rebalancing” of the global economy, as
emerging-market countries overtake the developed nations in driving
growth. Next is “the productivity imperative,” the pressure on developed
countries to step up output. Third is “the global grid,” the idea that
economies will continue to become more interconnected through complex
flows of capital, goods, information, and more. Fourth is “pricing the plan-
et,” the growing competition for limited resources. And finally, “the mar-
ket state,” the dilemma facing national governments as they try to main-
tain social stability in an increasingly globalized world.
The writers admit that their ideas are tentative and that no one can know
precisely how these forces will interact. But they nonetheless contend that
companies must incorporate these topics into their strategic discussions.
While one might quibble over the definition of the key forces, it’s hard to
deny that they are real.
We’ve written a lot about risk management and dealing with complexity over the years. It seems as if it will not get any easier.
A PUBLICATION OF
Editorial Director
