specialreport
BY JAMES A. COOKE, EDITOR AT LARGE
2009 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ready for
Our exclusive survey shows that distribution
managers weren’t waiting around last fall
for official pronouncements of a recession.
They were already buckling up and hunkering down for a rough ride. the storm
DCV’S READERS HAVEN’T BEEN SITTING IDLY BY
as the nation slips further into recession—they’re taking
action in response to a rapidly deteriorating economy.
These actions have included putting projects on hold
and laying off workers, while at the same time investing
in equipment and software that will boost productivity
in their distribution operations.
That’s the picture that emerges from our exclusive
2009 Outlook survey—an online poll conducted among
DCV’s readers right after the presidential election in
early November. A total of 335 readers completed the
questionnaire. The majority of the respondents worked
for either manufacturers ( 36 percent) or distributors ( 31
percent). The remainder worked for service providers
( 15 percent), retailers ( 8 percent), and other businesses
( 10 percent).
Not surprisingly, most survey respondents were bearish when it came to the economic outlook for 2009. About 43 percent said they were pessimistic
about the economy overall. “This will be the worst year in three decades for manufacturers,” one
respondent said. Another 34 percent said they were unsure what was going to happen this year, while
only 23 percent said they were optimistic about 2009.
When asked about the U.S. economy’s growth prospects for this year, 38 percent of respondents
said they expected growth to be flat, while another 33 percent said it would be weak. Just over a quarter— 26 percent—said growth would be down. Only 3 percent said they thought the economy would
see strong growth this year.
As for their view of their own business, 67 percent said that their company’s sales would be either
flat or down, while 17 percent expected weak revenue. “Next year will be flat with an increase in sales
but not in profits,” one reader told us. Only 16 percent said sales would be strong.
