market landscape and its growth prospects in the coming years. The report also
includes a discussion of the key vendors
operating in this market.
Lower Feedstock Prices
Can Reduce Cellulosic Sugar
Prices as Low as USD 0.26/
kg: Lux Research
Lower feedstock prices can drive down
prices of fermentable cellulosic sugar to
USD 0.26/kg, down from USD 0.32/kg
to USD 0.36/kg, competitive with sugars
from corn or sugarcane, according to Lux
Research. This advance would allow bio-based chemicals and biofuels to be made
from more plentiful non-food sources,
helping them better compete with petro-leum-based chemicals and fuels.
Improved enzyme technology will also be
critical to making bio-based fuels and chemicals from cellulose competitive with those
from corn and sugarcane, Lux Research says.
“Feedstock is the single largest driver
of overall fuel production economics.
While agricultural waste is a common
target feedstock, municipal and industrial waste can be near zero cost, or even
negative cost,” said Andrew Soare, Lux
Research Senior Analyst and the lead
author of the report titled, “Cellulosic
Chemicals and Fuels Race to Compete
with First-Gen Sugar Economics.” “While
enzymes are a big cost driver for cellulosic sugar, methods such as supercritical
fluid processes that don’t use enzymes at
all can offer cheaper options,” he added.
Thermochemical
Pretreatment Options Offer
Cellulosic Sugars for USD
0.25 per kg Operating Cost
Lux Research analysts built a cost model
for a 700,000-ton-per-year plant to study
the five main routes from lignocellulosic
biomass to sugars. Among their findings:
Cellulosic sugar costs vary. The mini-
mum selling price for cellulosic sugars
depends on the processes used. Dilute
acid yields USD 0.34/kg, high-opex steam
explosion costs USD 0.35 per kg,
ammonia fiber expansion costs
USD 0.36/kg, and supercritical
water can yield the cheapest price
of USD 0.32/kg. Feedstock has a 21 percent
impact on cellulosic sugar prices. A sensitiv-
ity analysis of cellulosic sugar prices found
that flexing feedstock up to USD 100 per
metric ton and down to USD 45 per metric
ton (from a baseline of USD 70 per metric
ton) had the largest impact on sugar prices,
changing it by over 21 percent.
Eschewing enzymes yields cheapest
prices. Enzymes are the most expensive
variable in prices of cellulosic sugar, and
supercritical fluid and concentrated acid
processes don’t require enzymes at all,
potentially offering the cheapest options
– though technology risk remains.
The report, titled “Cellulosic
Chemicals and Fuels Race to Compete
with First-Gen Sugar Economics,” is part
of the Lux Research Alternative Fuels
Intelligence and the Bio-based Materials
and Chemicals Intelligence services. CW
