yond ITO—have already made significant inroads on ITO, as indicated by the use of both tin and zinc oxides in several PV types.
Longer-term opportunities could include the deployment of a
broader range of nanometals and other nanomaterials.
Saved by the Display: Conductive Coatings’
Future in Displays
Not only are the overall markets for PV coatings likely to decline somewhat during the coming decade, but also the materials suppliers will likely have to pour more money into marketing
to the PV space. Unless they can prove significant performance
advantages or vastly lowered cost, it is likely that margins will
decline for conductive coatings firms targeting the PV space.
Fortunately, the display industry may save the conductive
coatings industry. Of the $9.7 billion in extra revenue projected to
be generated by the conductive
coatings industry over the forecast
period, $6 billion, or about 60 percent, will come from new sales of
conductive coatings into the display industry.
The obvious short-term opportunity in displays lies in the replacement of ITO by less expensive
and more resilient materials, from
alternative transparent conductive
oxides of tin or zinc, to coatings
made using conductive polymers
and nanomaterials of various
kinds. This trend has been apparent
for several years, but recent signs
indicate that what might have been
dismissed a year or so back as wishful thinking by a few firms
with a propensity for hyping the latest materials is beginning to
look like a market opportunity that could someday be worth billions of dollars.
Today, there are display products using transparent conductors other than ITO actually appearing in the market. For example, firms that are pushing alternatives to ITO in the display
industry have found a receptive market niche to test-run their
products: the touch-screen sensor market. Touch screen applications have the advantage that ITO is not as entrenched as in the
mainstream LCD business, and the underlying touch-screen display market is growing fast.
Unfortunately, if ITO replacement is ever going to be a really
substantial market for the conductive coatings firms, these new
materials will need to break through into the mainstream LCD
market, where ITO is entrenched; the touch screen sensor market just is not that big. Some small signs of activity in this regard
first appeared in 2011; if these signs grow in visibility over the
next year or two, a huge market opportunity for conductive coatings makers could emerge.
Beyond LCD: While the possibility of ITO replacement in
conventional displays has been known and discussed for quite
some time, entirely new generations of displays may soon rescue
the conductive coatings firms from the problems faced in the PV
sector. Just as PV once presented the conductive coatings business
with a substantial new market that emerged from “nowhere,”
the same thing is expected to happen in the display industry
within a three to five year time span.
Why? The “LCD revolution” is coming to an end. The industry
is reaching near saturation in its major addressable markets, and it
is now in need of new ways to maintain profitability. As a result, the
big display manufacturers are looking toward the next big thing,
Replacement of ITO transparent
electrodes in displays is the biggest
factor, but there are other opportunities as well. For example, e-paper
and OLED displays, both of which
are not backlit, need new kinds of
opaque conductors for the back
electrodes. Meanwhile, the arrival of
transparent and flexible displays in
the next few years will certainly change the rules of engagement for
conductive coatings makers. Transparent displays—and transparent electronics in general—will likely trigger the need for an entirely
new set of transparent materials, and conductive coatings firms may
tap into this opportunity if it emerges. Similarly, flexible displays
will require flexible materials; the great hope for ITO replacement
lies in the area of nanomaterials, which have yet to achieve any substantial penetration of the market, but as an early stage technology
have, at least, the potential for a “great leap forward.”
“By 2016, annual revenues from
nanometal coatings are expected
to reach $665 million, growing to
$1.4 billion by 2019. The biggest
for nanometallic
coatings will be in the ITO-replacement market, where nanosilver will take the lead.”
What About OLEDs?
The OLED sector warrants special attention by conductive coatings firms looking for new opportunities, because it is already quite
large and promises to be larger. Full color, active-matrix OLED
displays have emerged in a big way in the last 18 months in smart-phones, and OLED TVs seem (finally) ready for commercialization
in the next year or so. In addition, although today’s OLED lighting products consist almost entirely of luxury lighting, large office
lighting panels are poised to be the next big thing.
The good news for conductive coatings suppliers is that OLED
makers have not only shown openness to replacing ITO, they have
shown actual enthusiasm, at least at the R&D level. There is not
www.coatingsworld.com
April 2012
